Sunday, 16 November 2008

What really caused the 2008 banking crisis?

When you compare the 2008 banking crisis with the Enron debacle, with Ahold’s demise or even with the Union Carbide disaster in Bhopal in 1984 some surprisingly clear parallels emerge. Various explanations have been offered for each of these crises, ranging from top management greed, failing watchdogs to insufficient government regulation and inappropriate accounting and governance structures. Yet, there is one common cause underlying all these symptoms and triggers, and that is the structural failure of management.

One central element in each of these disasters, including the banking crisis, is caused by the division of labour and specialisation within and across organisations. In the case of investment banks, financial engineers drew up increasingly complex financial instruments that, among others, incorporated assets based on the American housing market. Yet, the financial engineers didn’t quite understand the situation in the housing market, the people in divisions and banks participating in the instruments didn’t quite understand the financial constructions or the American housing market, and when it all added up to the level of departments, groups, divisions and whole corporations, top managers certainly had no clue what they were exposed to and in what degree.

Similarly, in Enron, managers did not quite understand what its energy traders were up to, Ahold’s executives had long lost track of the dealings of its various subsidiaries scattered all over the world, and also Union Carbide’s administrators had little knowledge of the workings of the chemical plant in faraway Bhopal. The complexity of the organisation, both within and across participating corporations, had outgrown any individual’s comprehension and surpassed the capacity of any of the traditional control systems in place.


Another crucial role was played by the myopia of success. Initially, the approach used by the companies involved was limited and careful, while there were often countervailing voices that expressed doubts and hesitation when gradually less care was taken – there certainly is evidence of all of this in the case of Enron, Ahold and also Union Carbide. However, when things started to work and bring in financial returns, as in the case of the banks, the usage of the instruments increased, sometimes dramatically, and they became bolder and more far-reaching. Iconoclasts and countervailing voices were dismissed or ceased to be raised at all. For example, in Ahold and Enron, the financial success of the firms’ approaches suppressed all hesitation towards their business strategies.

This caused a third element to emerge: it actually became improper not to follow the approach that brought so much success to many. In the case of investment banks, other banks and financial institutions that did not participate to the same extent as others, received criticism for being “too conservative” and “old-fashioned”. Investors, analysts and other stakeholders joined in the criticism, and watchdogs and other regulatory institutions came under increasing pressure to get out of the way and not hamper innovation and progress.

Similarly, Enron was hailed as an example of the modern way of doing business, while analysts (whose investment banks were greatly profiteering from Enron’s success) recommended “buy” till days before its fall. Similarly, Ahold’s CEO Cees van der Hoeven continued to receive awards when the company had already started its freefall. All of these organisations’ courses of action had been further spurned and turned into an irreversible trend by the various parties and stakeholders in its business environment.

This relates to a fourth management factor that contributes to the formation of a crisis. It’s the factor that is related to what was on everyone’s lips in the immediate aftermath of each of the aforementioned crises: greed. Somehow, all organisations and individuals involved seemed to have let short-term financial gain prevail over common sense and good stewardship. But in all these cases, greed was not restricted to the few top managers who ended up in jail or covered in tar and feathers. Ahold’s shareholders initially profited as much as its executives. Investors, politicians and even customers shared in equal measures the early windfalls of Enron; likewise for the investments banks. Even the Church of England made big bucks on the financial practices they so heavily criticized in the days following the collapse of the system.

The greed factor, however, does not stand alone; it is built into the structure of the whole corporate system. Traders are incentivised to concentrate on making money; top managers are supposed to cater to the financial needs of shareholders above anything else – opening themselves up to severe criticism if they don’t – and customers are expected to choose the best deal in town without having to worry where and how the gains were created. However, none of these parties actually see what lies behind the financial benefits, and where they come from. The traders just see the numbers, the investors only see their dividends and earnings per share and the Church of England simply chose the best deal while the archbishops were unaware it amounted to short-selling. The high degree of specialisation and division of labour both within and between the financial institutions may have revealed the result of the process but showed no sign of how these profits were actually produced.










In combination, all these elements create a system that escalates risky short term strategies until it culminates into an irreversible course of action. Consequently, it becomes unseemly to do anything else. As in a pyramid investment scheme, everybody is interlocked and benefits until the whole structure collapses, sometimes with devastating consequences. The 2008 banking crisis is only unique in the sense that it did not concern one organization but a whole global sector of interlocked firms, due to the high degree of similarity between the various corporations and their business strategies and the unprecedented extent of the financial linkages between them.

All these things point to one underlying cause: the structural failure of management. The management systems used to govern these organisations were unable to control the inevitable process towards destruction. Whether analysing Enron, Ahold, Union Carbide in 1984 or banks in 2008, the striking commonality is the sheer inevitability of the disaster; each of them were accidents waiting to happen, given the state of the organisation.

More rules and regulations and more quantitative and financial controls are unlikely to solve the problem, and prevent similar events from happening in the future. All organisations and people involved in these cases, ranging from top managers to traders and customers, were governed and incentivised by means of quantitative and financial controls. However, today’s businesses are too complex to be controlled by rules and financial systems alone.

Instead, organisations will need to tap into the fundamental human inclination to belong to a community (such as an organisation), including people’s desire to do things for the benefit of that community rather than focus on their individual, narrow interests. These are alien concepts in the City today, where incentives are geared towards optimising individual, short-term performance while company loyalty and a sense of community are all but destroyed by the financial incentives and culture in place. Yet, when such human desires to contribute to a community are artificially suppressed through narrow financial incentivation schemes, weird things can happen – and the 2008 banking crisis certainly was one weird thing.

57 comments:

Wally Bock said...

Bravo! What an incredible post. I'll pick "In combination, all these elements create a system that escalates risky short term strategies until it culminates into an irreversible course of action." for the money quote, but that's just the start.

I think it's also instructive that key CEOs who did not drag their institutions into the shaky investments (Jamie Dimon, eg) did so because they wouldn't invest in something they couldn't understand or see the business purpose for.

Wally Bock said...

Congratulations! This post was selected as one of the five best business blog posts of the week in my Three Star Leadership Midweek Review of the Business Blogs.

http://blog.threestarleadership.com/2008/11/19/111908-a-midweek-look-at-the-business-blogs.aspx

I commented: This is splendid analysis with a historical flavor.

Wally Bock

Suphong Vibulresth said...

You identify the cause as "These are alien concepts in the City today, where incentives are geared towards optimising individual, short-term performance while company loyalty and a sense of community are all but destroyed by the financial incentives and culture in place," but this is only intermediate cause. The next question is "How do we come about having such a culture in our cities?" This requires the analysis of our own culture and the historic set up of our social system.
Overall, the post is enlightening and should remind us to provide for a cushion against unforseen risk.

vlade said...

The investment banks used to be partnerships, with the partners being people who went through the mill and so understood the workings of the bank pretty well. The people had long-term incentive - to become a partner, at which time they basically had their life invested in the company.
I'm not saying that partnerships cannot fail spectacularly, but they are, for complex companies, much better than the public-ownership model.

Sildenafil said...

hahaha I love the comparison you made with the piggy bank images, they are hilarious and very appropriate to illustrate the situation! great post

Anonymous said...

No mention of real reason the ball got rolling? Clinton shoving equal housing down the banks throats!

Tiago said...

There are a lot of different explanations for a same action. A financial explanation, a structural crisis, a government corruption, etc. I was living in a buenos aires apartment in 2001 Argentinean crisis, and as terrible as it was, 2 years later things was improving everyday and economy continued growing until 2011. So, many economic explanations proved to be inadequate (or later growness wouldn´t happen) but is impossible to know the true causes of a crisis while it last

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anony mous said...

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Thanks

anony mous said...

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Thanks

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4. Age: One Year, One Month
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TESTIMONY ON HOW I BECAME INSTANT MILLIONAIRE WITH THE HELP OF ILLUMINATI Hello viewers, i want to use this opportunity to thank DR ODUCKAYAMUD who finally helped me to become a full member of the Great Illuminati Brotherhood and now i am living my life in happiness. I was once indigent and lived my life in extreme poverty, the standard of living became so poor and low that I even thought of killing myself, I was deeply strangled up by poverty and I had no body to help me, to eat was a problem to me and my family. Until I met with a great generous man by name DR ODUCKAYAMUD who told me there would be no need for me to die and he introduced me into the world of riches and fame. He told me to get my membership form which i did, and he told me to get ready for my initiation day and that all new members will be given a certain reward of $100,000 USD cash on my initiation day, i was so happy. so i was initiated to the Illuminati world and few days later i was awarded a contract worth of millions of Dollars, in my business i am doing very well right now, I used just 200 dollar to get this beg amount of money and I did exactly what i was ask to do and today the story has change, i have up to $800,000000 USD in my bank account, I am a living testimony, my dream and all the wealth, fame, success and riches, i have ever desired is been made a reality. All the same thanks DR ODUCKAYAMUD who made my dreams a reality by helping me become a member of the great illuminate.YOU CAN COUNTACT HIM ON oduckayamud49@gmail.com or oduckayamud49@yahoo.com and also be a happy man like me because we are not getting any younger.his a life changer YOU CAN ALL REACH HIM ON WhatsApp number (+2347059232579)

Anonymous said...


My Name is KPELELIO.I will love to share my testimony to all the people in the forum cos i never thought i will have my girlfriend back and she means so much to me..The girl i want to get marry to left me 4 weeks to our wedding for another man..,When i called her she never picked my calls,She deleted me on her facebook and she changed her facebook status from married to Single...when i went to her to her place of work she told her boss she never want to see me..I lost my job as a result of this cos i cant get myself anymore,my life was upside down and everything did not go smooth with my life...I tried all i could do to have her back to all did not work out until i met a Man when i Travel to Africa to execute some business have been developing some years back..I told him my problem and all have passed through in getting her back and how i lost my job...he told me he gonna help me...i don't believe that in the first place.but he swore he will help me out and he told me the reason why my girlfriend left me and also told me some hidden secrets.i was amazed when i heard that from him..he said he will cast a spell for me and i will see the results in the next couple of days..then i travel back to US the following day and i called him when i got home and he said he's busy casting those spells and he has bought all the materials needed for the spells,he said am gonna see positive results in the next 2 days that is Thursday...My girlfriend called me at exactly 12:35pm on Thursday and apologies for all she had done ..she said,she never knew what she's doing and her sudden behavior was not intentional and she promised not to do that again.it was like am dreaming when i heard that from her and when we ended the call,i called the man and told him my wife called and he said i haven't seen anything yet... he said i will also get my job back in 3 days time..and when its Sunday,they called me at my place of work that i should resume working on Monday and they gonna compensate me for the time limit have spent at home without working..My life is back into shape,i have my girlfriend back and we are happily married now with kids and i have my job back too.This man is really powerful..if we have up to 20 people like him in the world,the world would have been a better place..he has also helped many of my friends to solve many problems and they are all happy now..Am posting this to the forum for anybody that is interested in meeting the man for help.you can mail him to oduckayamud49@yahoo.com I cant give out his number cos he told me he don't want to be disturbed by many people across the world..he said his email is okay and he' will replied to any emails asap..hope he helped u out too..good luck: oduckayamud49@yahoo.com OR oduckayamud49@gmail.com .... YOU CAN USE ANY OF THE EMAILS TO CONTACT HIM. ONCE AGAIN HIS EMAIL ADDRESS IS: oduckayamud49@yahoo.com OR oduckayamud49@gmail.com .... YOU CAN USE ANY OF THE EMAILS TO CONTACT HIM ......YOU CAN ALSO CALL / ADD HIM UP ON WHATSAPP USING THIS MOBILE NUMBER: +2347059232579

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